If you have taken a flight recently, you probably noticed the airlines are having big problems. Sometimes it is weather delays. Sometimes there are mechanical problems. But anytime the word CANCELED pops up on the screen, there is a capacity problem and it is a big problem.
In the not to distant past, a canceled flight meant the affected passenger just had to walk down the corridor and book a seat on a different carrier. It was not a big deal.
But it is now. The planes are sold out. Why are things so different today?
For one thing, more people are flying but that is only part of the problem. Take this example. Suppose a full Newark to Omaha 738 has a mechanical problem and has to be canceled. There are now 150 people scrambling to find other seats. The next flight out is a regional jet that has replaced a DC-9 that use to fly the same route. The regional jet, called an RJ, has 50 seats. The old DC-9 it replaced had 120 seats. As the use of RJs spread because of their efficiency and profitability, the number of available airline seats shrinks drastically. It will take almost three completely empty RJs to make up for the lost seats of that canceled 738. That is why passengers are no longer waiting hours to catch the next flight out; they may have to wait for days.
There is only so much room in the current Air Traffic Control system, too. The 738 has the same radar target as the RJ; takes the same number of controllers to handle it; and will take up the same ramp space.
And do not forget crews. Many are flying their crews to the max. When they do that type of crew scheduling, the available plane may, and will more frequently, still sit at the gate because there is not crew to fly it. Pilots can only fly 1,000 hours a year and as airlines eat up that time, flights at the end of the month are the ones most likely to be canceled because there are no available crews.
The solution? There are actually solutions. One is better aircraft scheduling. When load factors exceed 100% or planes are oversold, there should be an option to bring in a bigger plane. Unfortunately, airlines do not have a bunch of spare bigger planes and available crews standing by to handle the problem. However, if some flights are always oversold, airlines should be required to make bigger planes available for that route until such time as passenger load factors fall within the RJs requirements. That is going to require regulation change and monitoring and that is not likely to happen.
The second part of the solution is an overhaul of the Air Traffic Control system. Right now, the system is a patched up antique for handling the air traffic system. It is similar to the national power grid. When one part of the system goes down, the entire system is in danger. And keep in mind, the inconvenience is not the loss of lights and air conditioning; it means planes in the air may have to fend for themselves.
The system needs a major upgrade to satellite based control. Planes can and should be tracked using GPS technology. It is going to be a major and expensive change but if the system is going to handle the traffic in the coming decades, the FAA needs to make plans now. If the system is going to be fixed, congress has to get their greedy little hands out of the airline trust fund. They need to make sure the money collected from fuel and passenger taxes goes to creating a new air traffic control system rather than an earmark for a runway expansion for some little airport in the middle of nowhere.
And the crews? Can regulations be changed to allow crews to fly longer duty times? That is not likely to happen. The unions and flight safety will be the deciding factors. The last thing you need is a tired crew trying to deal with heavy weather, holding patterns, and a control system that could fail at any time.
For now, if you want to make sure you get there; do not make plans to fly late in the month. There are too many things working against you.
Kenny Miller is a retired corporate pilot with world-wide flying experience. He has flown camera equipped Lear Jets and was part of the crew that took many of the official pictures of the Mt. St. Helens eruption. He also flew air freight. In his last flying job, he was one of country singer Willie Nelson’s personal pilots. Miller is also a published writer and photographer and has been a consultant for the Federal Aviation Administration and was responsible for recruiting the controller workforce to replace PATCO controllers. His site is http://www.nebraskawriter.com
Tags: air traffic control, airline delays, airline safety, airlines, airplane safety, airplanes